Thursday, July 16, 2009

Economics - Unemployment...?

I need to track down an 18 month forecast for the unemployment rate in the U.S. It should extend out to June of 2008.



Does anyone know where I can find one for free? I have found some, but they are only for 6 months and not what I am looking for.



Any guidance here is appreciated.



Economics - Unemployment...?unsecured loan





If you%26#039;re looking for %26quot;official%26quot; forecasts, I can%26#039;t imagine you%26#039;ll see one for longer than 6 months. However, there are a number of research centers throughout the country that do economic forecasts.



My favorite is this guy:



http://robinson.gsu.edu/efc/index.html



However, he only predicts by quarter, but hopefully this will help you out:



Q1 07 4.9



Q2 07 4.9



Q3 07 5.0



Q4 07 5.1



Q1 08 5.1



Q2 08 5.1



Q3 08 5.1



Q4 08 5.1



I realize this isn%26#039;t exactly what you%26#039;re looking for but hopefully this helps you out some.



Economics - Unemployment...?

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Of all the things to forecast, I can%26#039;t imagine a forecast of unemployment rates would be worth the paper they%26#039;re written on. If you could go back a year in a time machine, and provide economists back then with all of this year%26#039;s other economic data, they%26#039;d STILL all get a forecast of the unemployment rate wrong.



Probably the very best estimate you could do would be to predict a flatline continuation of the present rate (4.5%) -- that would be as good as anyone else%26#039;s.

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